Tenki Diary 2 Jan 08

7am Wednesday morning.  Weather study plot data for the last 24 hours.  Continued snowfall, although only 15cm new snowfall (HN24) in the period.  Medium to strong winds were observed at 1600m, predominantly from the SE, however the gusts seemed variable, sometimes from the NE-NW sector.  We didn't travel in the backcountry and so can not report on snowpack stability,  Off-piste snow was as expected:  extremely deep, armpit deep or more.  For the unprepared, it would be almost impossible to walk up a 10 degree incline.  For the properly equipped, skinning or even harder - snowshoeing - on anything steeper wouldn't be much fun either.  Air temperature at 1500m were recorded at -5.7C (3pm).  At 860m asl the rain crust from 29 Jan is over 150cm deep.  That's deeper than the force exerted by one skier usually penetrates.  Its also deep enough to produce an avalanche big enough to destroy a small village. With recent winds the new snow depth will be variable and therefore possible for a single skier to trigger an avalanche in a thinner area of new snow pack (near convex rolls and ridges) that then propagates into the full thickness of new snow in bowls and gullies.

This morning it is still snowing however now only at 1cm per hour.  Visibility has improved.  Barometric pressure stands at 908mbar and rising.  Relatively clear weather is forecast.

The first sunny day is going to be a dangerous day in these mountains.  Too deep to ski anything low angle (under 30 degrees).  Too dangerous too ski slopes any steeper.  Unfortunately for some people, its is too alluring not to try.  The level of avalanche hazard above the tree line is being reported as Extreme by experienced CAA instructors. Extreme is the highest hazard level.  At the tree line it is reported as High - second highest.  Below the tree line it is rated as Considerable - the third highest hazard level and the one when most avalanche deaths occur.

I personally wont attempt to ski anything over 30 degrees for at least a week od settled weather.